Events to Watch, Eurozone CPI, Japanese Tankan

Events to Watch, Eurozone CPI, Japanese Tankan September 29, 2009 at 10:12 am Japan Tankan survey - Q3: The large manufacturer business condition DI is anticipated to have risen to -34 in the third quarter from -48 in the prior quarter as driven by improvements in production/inventory cycle. On the other hand, large non-manufacturer DI probably only risen 2 points to -27. DIs... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6035 September 29, 2009 at 4:46 am The British pound has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.5824 as expected, retaining our view that further consolidation above recent low at 1.5770 would take place and retracement to 1.6037 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6470 to 1.5770) is likely, however, reckon 1.6079 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6388 to 1.5770) would... Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell at 1.0470 O.C.O. Buy at 1.0280 September 29, 2009 at 4:45 am The greenback has continued to edge higher on dollar's broad-based strength and correction of recent decline to 1.0466/70 is likely, however, reckon resistance at 1.0529 (previous support turned resistance) would hold from here and bring another decline later. Below 1.0270/75 would signal top is formed and fall to 1.0243 would... USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook September 29, 2009 at 4:43 am USD/JPY's rebound from 88.23 is still in progress and further rise might be seen. But upside is still expected to be limited below 92.52 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 89.12 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 88.23 will target key support level... GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook September 29, 2009 at 4:38 am GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5769 is still in progress and further rise might be seen. But should be limited by 1.6133 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5769 will target 161.8% projection of 1.7043 to 1.6111 from 1.6740 at 1.5232 next. USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook September 29, 2009 at 4:36 am USD/CHF's rebound from 1.1085 extends further in early US session and the break of 1.0388 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is at least formed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. Further rise should be seen to 1.0530 support turned resistance first. On the downside, however, below... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.4685 September 29, 2009 at 4:29 am The single currency has fallen again on dollar's strength across the board especially versus European currencies, suggesting the decline to 1.4845 top is still in progress and stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.4511/15 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4177 to 1.4845 and previous support) is under way, however, reckon 1.4448... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Short Entered at 90.10 September 29, 2009 at 4:28 am As the greenback has risen again after brief retreat to 89.60/63 on dollar's broad-based strength, suggesting caution on our bearishness and resistance at 90.35 must hold for prospect of another fall. Below said minor support would bring fall to 89.00 and later retest of 88.23 but below this recent low... EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook September 29, 2009 at 4:15 am EUR/USD's fall resumes by breaking 1.4564 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. As discussed before, we're still favoring the case that a short term top is at least formed at 1.4842, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline is expected to be seen... Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rises after Consumer Confidence Disappointment September 29, 2009 at 4:14 am Dollar strengthens in early US session after disappointment from consumer confidence data which triggered some selloff in stocks. DOW reversed earlier gains and dropped back to below 9800 level. Crude oil and gold are soft in tight range and is vulnerable to further decline. Dollar index broke yesterday's high of... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 131.80 September 28, 2009 at 11:49 pm Although the single currency retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 131.79 (just missed our short entry for 1 pip), break of 130.00 is needed to signal the correction from 129.84 has ended and bring resumption of recent decline towards 129.00 but reckon downside would be limited to 128.00 and chart... Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8650 September 28, 2009 at 11:47 pm Aussie's anticipated rally has justified our bullishness and met our indicated upside target at 0.8750 (making 150 points profit), confirming the correction from 0.8790 has ended at 0.8585 and the wave (5) is now in progress. Above said resistance would extend gain to 0.8820 but loss of upward momentum should... GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis September 28, 2009 at 11:16 pm The selloff in British pound after breaking indicated support at 146.75 confirms our view that the c leg as well as the larger degree wave 4 has ended at 163.00 and bearishness remains for further subsequent weakness to support at 139.03 would be seen. GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis September 28, 2009 at 11:16 pm Cable's breach of indicated 1.5983 support has reinforced our bearish count that wave (v) of C has possibly ended at 1.7044 and bearishness remains for further decline to 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3500-1.7044) and later to 1.5591 (1.236 projection of 1.7044 to 1.6113 measuring from 1.6742) but reckon 1.5272... EUR/GBP Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:58 pm With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top should be in place in EUR/GBP at 0.9297. Some consolidation could now be seen but after all, pull back is expected to be contained by 0.8983/9081 support zone and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9297 will target 0.9494 resistance next.... EUR/CHF Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:52 pm Further decline in EUR/CHF cannot be ruled out but after all, price actions from 1.5380 are treated as corrective in nature. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5007 low and bring strong rebound. Nevertheless, break of 1.5231 resistance is needed to signal that the cross has bottomed out. Otherwise, risk... Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0460, O.C.O. Buy At 1.0250 September 28, 2009 at 9:46 pm Dollar's near term choppy trading is expected to continue and as temporary low has been formed at 1.0170 last week, minor support at 1.0243 should limit downside and bring another corrective rise to 1.0420/25, however, reckon resistance at 1.0466 would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6000 September 28, 2009 at 9:45 pm Although the British pound has retreated after rebounding to 1.5959 this morning and consolidation with downside bias is seen, break of yesterday's low at 1.5770 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness towards 1.5719 (1.236 times projection of 1.6742-1.6134 measuring from 1.6470) and then 1.5690 (38.2%... EUR/JPY Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:41 pm With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low should be in place in EUR/JPY and some consolidations might now be seen. Nevertheless, recovery is expected to be limited well below 135.47 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 129.80 will target 100% projection of 138.70 to 131.00 from... GBP/JPY Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:37 pm GBP/JPY recovers after dropping to as low as 139.72. An intraday low should be in place with 143.15 minor resistance broken with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Some consolidations could now be seen but upside is expected to be limited below 149.01 support turned resistance and bring fall... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4735 September 28, 2009 at 9:22 pm The single currency has traded narrowly and further consolidation shall take place today and whilst recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4704) cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.4738-41 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4845 to 1.4565 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), bring another... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Short Entered At 90.10 September 28, 2009 at 9:20 pm Despite intra-day rebound to 90.23, as long as resistance at 90.35 (previous support turned resistance) holds, bearishness remains for a retreat later but below recent low at 88.23 is needed to confirm decline has resumed and extend weakness towards 87.81 (61.8% projection of 97.79 to 90.12 measuring from 92.55) but... USD/CAD Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:09 pm USD/CAD's pull back from 1.0991 extends further and the break of 1.0859 indicates that an intraday top is in place. Some consolidation should now be seen. But downside is expected to be contained above 1.0659 support and bring rally resumption. As discussed before, a short term bottom should at least... GBP/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis September 28, 2009 at 9:04 pm Cable's selloff adds credence to our bearish view that top has been formed at 1.7044 earlier and our indicated downside target at 1.5983 has been met and further fall to 1.5721 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4398 to 1.7044 as well as current level of the Kijun-Sen), then towards 1.5591 (1.236... AUD/USD Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 9:03 pm AUD/USD rebounded strongly after drawing support from 0.8589. While upside momentum is clearly diminishing, there is not confirmation of topping with 0.8589 support intact. Another high above 0.8787 might be seen. But still, we'd expect further loss of momentum 61.8% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.8924 and... USD/CHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis September 28, 2009 at 9:03 pm The greenback extended medium term decline from 1.2298 as suggested in our previous update and our indicated downside target at 1.0176 (61.8% projection of 1.1967 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) has been met (last week's low was 1.0170). Although dollar has recovered from there, bearishness remains for further decline towards... EUR/USD Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 8:57 pm Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.4724 minor resistance intact. We're still favoring the case that a short term top is at least formed at 1.4842, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline is now expected to be seen to 1.4446 resistance turned support... GBP/USD Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 8:52 pm With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is in place in GBP/USD at 1.5769. Some consolidation could be seen but recovery should be limited by 1.6133 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5769 will target 161.8% projection of 1.7043 to 1.6111 from 1.6740 at... USD/CHF Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 8:48 pm No change in USD/CHF's outlook. Bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD argues that a short term bottom is formed at 1.0185 but this is not confirmed by a break of 1.0388 resistance yet. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Break of 1.0388 will indicate that a short term... USD/JPY Daily Outlook September 28, 2009 at 8:37 pm USD/JPY's rebound from 88.23 continues and break of 89.93 indicates that an intraday low is formed. Some more recovery might be seen but after all, upside is expected to be limited below 92.52 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 89.12 will flip intraday bias back to the... Daily Report: Yen Lower as Fujii Reversed Rhetoric and Stocks Rebound September 28, 2009 at 8:36 pm The Japanese yen continue to retreat after Japan Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii reversed his rhetoric about strong yen policy and as Asian stocks rebound following strength in US equities. Fujii claimed he "never said I will leave the yen to strengthen", insisting that he was misinterpreted as supporting a strong...