USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook September 28, 2009 at 4:50 am Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 89.93 minor resistance intact. Current decline from 97.77 is still expected to continue and target 87.12 key support level next. On the upside, above 89.93 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidations first. But rebound should be limited... USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook September 28, 2009 at 4:47 am Intraday outlook in USD/CHF remains neutral with 1.0388 minor resistance intact. Nevertheless, break of 1.0388 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and stronger rise should be seen to 1.0530 support turned resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 61.8% projection of 1.1740 to 1.0590... GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook September 28, 2009 at 4:46 am At this point, intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.6047 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.5769 will bring fall resumption to next target of 161.8% projection of 1.7043 to 1.6111 from 1.6740 at 1.5232. On the upside, above 1.6047 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6000 September 28, 2009 at 4:43 am The British pound traded narrowly after tumbling to 1.5770 this morning, suggesting further consolidation would take place and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5908) would bring correction towards 1.6000-10 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6388 to 1.5770), however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Below... Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell at 1.0420 O.C.O. Buy at 1.0250 September 28, 2009 at 4:41 am Although the greenback retreated after rising to 1.0388 this morning, as temporary low has been formed at 1.0170, downside should be limited to minor support at 1.0243 and bring another corrective rise to 1.0420/25, however, reckon resistance at 1.0466 would hold and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.4780 September 28, 2009 at 4:34 am Although euro's rebound after intra-day fall to 1.4565 suggests recovery to 1.4735/40 cannot be ruled out, however, as temporary top has been formed at 1.4845, upside should be limited to 1.4800/04 and bring another decline later. Below said support would bring a stronger correction of recent upmove to 1.4511/15 (50%... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell at 90.10 September 28, 2009 at 4:32 am Dollar's rebound after intra-day selloff to 88.23 this morning suggests consolidation above this level would take place and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 89.94) cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 90.33/35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 91.63 to 88.23 and previous support turned resistance) and bring... EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook September 28, 2009 at 4:22 am EUR/USD recovers after falling to 1.4564 but still, intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.4724 minor resistance intact. As noted before, prior break of 1.4611 support indicates that a short term top is at least in place at 1.4842, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline... Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Pare Gains as Stocks Recover September 28, 2009 at 4:20 am Dollar and yen pare earlier gains as European stocks rise while US stocks higher. Major European equity indices are rising 1 to 2%. S&P 500 recovers from Friday's loss and regains 1050 handle on news of takeover activities in drug and technology industries in US. Crude oil and oil are... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 131.80 September 28, 2009 at 12:30 am The single currency finally dropped below support at 131.01 this morning and stop-loss selling pressed the currency pair sharply lower to 129.84 before recovering, this break of 131.01 support aborted our previous preferred count and signal the wave (2) from 138.72 is still unfolding. This wave (2) is now treated... Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold Long Entered At 0.8600 September 28, 2009 at 12:29 am Despite intra-day marginal fall below 0.8590, lack of follow through selling and the rebound from 0.8585 suggest as long as this support holds, consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 0.8710/15. However, break there is needed to confirm correction from 0.8790 has ended at 0.8585 and bring resumption... Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Ideas Performance Update September 27, 2009 at 11:48 pm The sudden quick move in greenback happened last Monday morning caught us off guard and the 4 positions entered that morning ended up with over 70 points losses. After that day, price actions turned choppy in nature except cable, we anticipated the reversal in sterling, however, we were unable to... Events to Watch: Japan CPI, US Consumer Confidence September 27, 2009 at 11:35 pm Nationwide core CPI in Japan is expected to have dropped -2.4% yoy in August after declining -2.2 a month ago as Tokyo CPI projected more severe contraction for the month. As we enter the fourth quarter, decline in core CPI should moderate due to weaker base effects. However, large negative... USD Net Shorts Almost Doubled Last Month September 27, 2009 at 11:29 pm The IMM report covers the 5-week period from August 18 to September 22. Aggregate USD new short positions increased to -$22.19B from -$12.65B in the week ended August 18. However, the level has also reduced from -$24.9B recorded in the week ended September 15. Looking at the currency breakdown, the... EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis September 27, 2009 at 11:11 pm The single currency resumed recent upmove in line with our expectation and rose to as high as 1.4845 last week. Although the pair then retreated from there on profit-taking and correction towards 1.4511/15 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4177 to 1.4845 and previous support) cannot be ruled out, however, a sustain... USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis September 27, 2009 at 11:10 pm The greenback met renewed selling interest at 92.55 early last week and resumed recent decline from 101.45 below support at 90.12, then dropped to as low as 88.23 this morning, calling for a review of our early count of an A-B-C wave 2. Once support at 87.10 (wave 1 trough)... EUR/GBP Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 10:14 pm EUR/GBP's rally extended further to as high as 0.9297 today and met mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.9264 before treating mildly. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained trading above 0.9264 will target 0.9494 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9153 minor... EUR/CHF Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 10:10 pm Further decline in EUR/CHF cannot be ruled out but after all, price actions from 1.5380 are treated as corrective in nature. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5007 low and bring strong rebound. Nevertheless, break of 1.5231 resistance is needed to signal that the cross has bottomed out. Otherwise, risk... AUD/USD Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 10:06 pm AUD/USD weakens further today but it's still holding above 0.8589 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Note that break of 0.8589 will confirms hat a short term top is at least in place, with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case deeper decline... USD/CAD Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 10:01 pm USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.1101 resistance first. Break there will confirm the pair has bottomed in medium term and bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 1.0859 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat.... Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0420, O.C.O. Buy At 1.0250 September 27, 2009 at 9:59 pm The greenback has jumped this morning on dollar's broad-based rebound, suggesting a temporary low has been formed at 1.0170 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for correction towards 1.0420/25, however, reckon resistance at 1.0466 would hold and bring another decline. However, as long as minor support at 1.0207 holds,... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6000 September 27, 2009 at 9:58 pm Some sizable stops were hit this morning and cable quickly dropped to as low as 1.5770 before recovering, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and a touch back to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5908) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6000-10 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6388... EUR/USD Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 9:53 pm EUR/USD's fall from 1.4842 continued today and the break of 1.4611 support confirms that a short term top is at least in place at 1.4842, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline is now expected to be seen to 1.4446 resistance turned support next and break will... GBP/USD Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 9:48 pm GBP/USD's fall extends further to as low as 1.5769 so far today, meeting mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7043 to 1.6111 from 1.6740 at 1.5805. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 161.8% projection at 1.5232 next. On the upside,... USD/CHF Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 9:44 pm USD/CHF's recovery from 1.0185 extended further today but is still limtied below 1.0388 resistance. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Break of 1.0388 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and stronger rise should be seen to 1.0530 support turned resistance next. On the downside,... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.4570 September 27, 2009 at 9:43 pm Although the single currency recovered from 1.4565, this morning's selloff suggests a temporary top has been formed at 1.4845 last week and reckon upside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4645) and as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4704) holds, downside risk remains for correction of recent... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 90.10 September 27, 2009 at 9:41 pm Despite falling sharply to 88.23 this morning, the quick rebound from there on short-covering suggests consolidation would take place and price is testing the Tenkan-Sen right now and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.01) cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 90.33/35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of... USD/JPY Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 9:39 pm USD/JPY's dived to as low as 88.23 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and fall from 97.77 is still expected to continue. Next target will be 87.12 key support level. On the upside, above 89.90 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring... EUR/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis September 27, 2009 at 9:30 pm The single currency extended recent upmove to fresh 2009 high of 1.4845 last week, however, as euro closed the week near the opening price, formed a ' doji ' star on the weekly chart, suggesting consolidation would take place and this week's development becomes critical, if a black body candlestick... EUR/JPY Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 9:30 pm EUR/JPY's fall from 135.47 accelerates today and dives to as low as 129.80 so far. Break of 131.00 support confirms that whole decline from 138.70 has resumed and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 138.70 to 131.00 from 135.47 at 127.77 next. On the upside, above... USD/JPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis September 27, 2009 at 9:28 pm Despite initial brief recovery to 92.55 last Monday, the greenback met renewed selling pressure there and resumed recent decline from 101.45 as expected in our previous update to as low as 88.23 this morning (almost reached our downside target at 88.07 - 100% projection of 101.45 to 91.73 measuring from... GBP/JPY Daily Outlook September 27, 2009 at 8:48 pm GBP/JPY's fall accelerated to as low as 139.72 so far today and met mentioned target of 50% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 140.93 as expected. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 140.93 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.70 next.... Daily Report: Yen Rockets on Japan FM Comments and Stocks, Dollar Lifted September 27, 2009 at 8:46 pm The Japanese yen rises sharply as the week starts, boosted by anti-intervention comments from Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii as well as steep decline in Nikkei 225 index. Fujii said over the week end that recent rise in yen is not "abnormal... in terms of trends" and "it would be...